Ýokary Liga · Apr 04, 2026 15:00
Şagadam
PWR 40
Şagadam
PWR 40
1-1
predicted
Balkan
PWR 32
PWR 32
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (42% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (9%)2-0 (9%)3-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)1-0 (6%)1-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
67%
67%
Under 2.5
33%
BTTS
Yes 58%
Over 3.5
23%
Team Comparison
38Attack27
50Defense38
Goals/G
1.10.8
Conc/G
1.41.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Şagadam
LLLDW
DOWN
Balkan
LWLLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 1% = 35.1% draw rateH2H: 3/4 draws (75%) = VERY HIGH risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.07
Şagadamvs
0.94
BalkanGoal Probability
Şagadam
0
5%
1
14%
2
22%
3
22%
4
17%
Balkan
0
39%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (15%)2-0 (13%)1-1 (11%)2-1 (9%)0-0 (9%)3-0 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% | - |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#4
Şagadam+1
Gap#5
Balkan
WR 31% 44 pts
WR 30% 41 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şagadam | 39 | 12 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 56 | 44 |
| Balkan | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 29 | 66 | 41 |
Şagadam
6.0%
| Dec 11 | Şagadam v Altyn A… | 1-2 |
| Dec 01 | Şagadam v Ahal | 1-0 |
| Nov 09 | Şagadam v Arkadag | 2-0 |
| Oct 30 | Şagadam v Balkan | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Şagadam v Aşgabat | 2-1 |
| Oct 17 | Şagadam v Merw | 2-0 |
| Sep 22 | Şagadam v Aşgabat | 1-0 |
| Sep 18 | Şagadam v Al-Nassr | 0-0 |
| Aug 19 | Şagadam v Arkadag | 1-4 |
| Aug 15 | Şagadam v Balkan | 1-1 |
Balkan
8.0%
| Dec 14 | Balkan v Arkadag | 4-1 |
| Dec 11 | Balkan v Köpetda… | 2-1 |
| Dec 07 | Balkan v Ahal | 0-3 |
| Dec 04 | Balkan v Altyn A… | 3-0 |
| Nov 30 | Balkan v Aşgabat | 1-0 |
| Nov 08 | Balkan v Merw | 1-2 |
| Oct 30 | Balkan v Şagadam | 0-0 |
| Sep 22 | Balkan v Al-Nassr | 0-3 |
| Sep 18 | Balkan v Köpetda… | 3-3 |
| Sep 13 | Balkan v Aşgabat | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Oct 30, 2025 | Balkan | 0-0 | Şagadam |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Şagadam | 1-1 | Balkan |
| May 09, 2025 | Balkan | 1-0 | Şagadam |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Şagadam | 0-0 | Balkan |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (25%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Şagadam struggling (3L in last 5)
Balkan struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.