Ýokary Liga · Apr 04, 2026 15:00
Ahal
PWR 68
Köpetdag Aşgabat
PWR 23
Ahal
PWR 68
3-1
predicted
Köpetdag Aşgabat
PWR 23
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Ahal Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (16%)2-0 (15%)1-0 (10%)3-1 (6%)2-1 (5%)1-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
BTTS
No
No 28%
Over 3.5
72%
72%
Team Comparison
65Attack30
75Defense22
Goals/G
1.90.9
Conc/G
0.72.2
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Ahal
DDLLW
STABLE
Köpetdag Aşgab…
LLLWL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy56%
AWAY_LEAKINGPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (24.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.07
Ahalvs
0.35
Köpetdag Aşgab…Goal Probability
Ahal
0
5%
1
14%
2
22%
3
22%
4
17%
Köpetdag Aş…
0
71%
1
25%
2
4%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (8%)4-0 (7%)3-1 (7%)4-1 (7%)2-0 (6%)5-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 96% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 87% | 14% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 54% | 46% | - |
| 5.5 | 36% | 64% | - |
| 6.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Ahal+6
Gap#8
Köpetdag Aş…
WR 63% 89 pts
WR 17% 25 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahal | 43 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 80 | 31 | 89 |
| Köpetdag Aşga… | 35 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | 78 | 25 |
Ahal
8.0%
| Mar 31 | Ahal v Altyn A… | 0-0 |
| Mar 18 | Ahal v Merw | 0-0 |
| Dec 23 | Ahal v Al Huss… | 3-1 |
| Dec 15 | Ahal v Aşgabat | 1-2 |
| Dec 11 | Ahal v Merw | 0-2 |
| Dec 07 | Ahal v Balkan | 0-3 |
| Dec 04 | Ahal v Merw | 4-0 |
| Dec 01 | Ahal v Şagadam | 1-0 |
| Nov 09 | Ahal v Altyn A… | 3-3 |
| Nov 04 | Ahal v Sepahan… | 2-2 |
Köpetdag Aşgab…
4.0%
| Dec 11 | Köpetda… v Balkan | 2-1 |
| Dec 04 | Köpetda… v Arkadag | 0-3 |
| Nov 30 | Köpetda… v Altyn A… | 1-5 |
| Nov 08 | Köpetda… v Aşgabat | 1-2 |
| Oct 29 | Köpetda… v Ahal | 1-4 |
| Oct 26 | Köpetda… v Merw | 2-2 |
| Oct 16 | Köpetda… v Ahal | 2-0 |
| Sep 22 | Köpetda… v Merw | 3-1 |
| Sep 18 | Köpetda… v Balkan | 3-3 |
| Sep 13 | Köpetda… v Al-Nassr | 5-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Oct 29, 2025 | Köpetdag Aşga… | 1-4 | Ahal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Ahal | 2-0 | Köpetdag Aşga… |
| May 09, 2025 | Köpetdag Aşga… | 0-3 | Ahal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Ahal | 4-0 | Köpetdag Aşga… |
Decision Breakdown
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (29%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Köpetdag Aşgabat struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.