Primera DivisiĂłn - Apertura · Apr 05, 2026 21:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
Deportivo Maldonado
PWR 35
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
1-0
predicted
Deportivo Maldonado
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (61% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (9%)3-1 (8%)2-0 (8%)3-0 (7%)1-1 (7%)1-0 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
68%
68%
Under 2.5
32%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 64%
Over 3.5
22%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev…
DLWDW
STABLE
Deportivo Mald…
LWLWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Apertura
Expected Goals (xG)
2.68
Peñarol Montev…vs
1.15
Deportivo Mald…Goal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
7%
1
18%
2
25%
3
22%
4
15%
Deportivo M…
0
32%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (13%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (9%)0-1 (9%)2-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 69% | 32% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% | - |
| 3.5 | 22% | 79% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Peñarol Mon…+2
Gap#4
Deportivo M…
WR 60% 19 pts
WR 20% 16 pts
Peñarol Montev…
12.0%
| Mar 31 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 3-3 |
| Mar 29 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 1-2 |
| Mar 25 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-2 |
| Mar 24 | Peñarol… v Central… | 3-3 |
| Mar 21 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 3-1 |
| Mar 21 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 1-0 |
| Mar 16 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Peñarol… v Albion … | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 1-1 |
Deportivo Mald…
10.0%
| Mar 31 | Deporti… v Central… | 2-1 |
| Mar 24 | Deporti… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Mar 20 | Deporti… v Cerro L… | 3-1 |
| Mar 15 | Deporti… v Defenso… | 1-0 |
| Mar 06 | Deporti… v Wandere… | 0-0 |
| Mar 02 | Deporti… v Juventud | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Deporti… v Peñarol… | 2-1 |
| Feb 14 | Deporti… v Progreso | 2-0 |
| Feb 08 | Deporti… v Racing … | 2-4 |
| Jan 14 | Deporti… v Club Na… | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Feb 22, 2026 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Deportivo Mal… |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Deportivo Mal… |
| Jul 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Deportivo Mal… |
| Apr 07, 2024 | Deportivo Mal… | 1-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Dec 03, 2023 | Deportivo Mal… | 0-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Deportivo Mal… | 0-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Mar 05, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Deportivo Mal… |
| Aug 22, 2022 | Deportivo Mal… | 1-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jun 19, 2022 | Deportivo Mal… | 1-3 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Deportivo Mal… |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
87%
Standings
65%
Market
50%
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.