US Open Cup · Apr 01, 2026 23:00
Lexington
PWR 23
Louisville City FC
PWR 56
Lexington
PWR 23
VS
Louisville City FC
PWR 56
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Under 2.5
Goals · Low scoring expected: 1.8 total goals avg
80%
accuracy
1.7x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Louisville City FC Win
Score
?
Confidence
55%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)3-0 (6%)2-0 (6%)3-2 (5%)2-2 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.88x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.49x
Over 2.5
73%
73%
Under 2.5
27%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 71%
Over 3.5
70%
70%
Team Comparison
0Attack53
65Defense65
Goals/G
0.01.5
Conc/G
1.01.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Lexington
LWDLW
STABLE
Louisville Cit…
WDWLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy73%
AWAY_FORM_MOMENTUMAWAY_POSITION_GAPAWAY_TABLE_EXTREMES
Full data available (Tier 1)Consider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (24.3%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
3.08
Lexingtonvs
1.37
Louisville Cit…Goal Probability
Lexington
0
5%
1
14%
2
22%
3
22%
4
17%
Louisville …
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
CORRECT SCORES
1-2 (7%)2-2 (7%)1-3 (6%)2-3 (6%)1-1 (5%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 86% | 15% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 70% | 30% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 5.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 21% | 80% | UNDER |
League Position
#40
Lexington-30
Gap#10
Louisville …
WR 0% 0 pts
WR 50% 7 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Louisville Ci… | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
Lexington
10.0%
| Mar 29 | Lexingt… v San Ant… | 2-0 |
| Mar 25 | Lexingt… v Brooklyn | 3-0 |
| Mar 14 | Lexingt… v Sacrame… | 0-0 |
| Mar 07 | Lexingt… v Louisvi… | 1-2 |
| Feb 27 | Lexingt… v Fort Wa… | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Lexingt… v Pittsbu… | 1-2 |
| Jan 30 | Lexingt… v Atlanta… | 4-0 |
| Jan 24 | Lexingt… v Orlando… | 1-2 |
| Oct 26 | Lexingt… v Oakland… | 3-0 |
| Oct 17 | Lexingt… v Sacrame… | 2-2 |
Louisville Cit…
14.0%
| Mar 28 | Louisvi… v Brooklyn | 0-1 |
| Mar 22 | Louisvi… v Chattan… | 2-2 |
| Mar 21 | Louisvi… v Rhode I… | 4-2 |
| Mar 15 | Louisvi… v Atlanta… | 4-1 |
| Mar 14 | Louisvi… v Miami FC | 4-1 |
| Mar 07 | Louisvi… v Lexingt… | 1-2 |
| Mar 07 | Louisvi… v Crown L… | 7-2 |
| Mar 03 | Louisvi… v Orlando… | 1-3 |
| Feb 27 | Louisvi… v One Kno… | 2-0 |
| Feb 22 | Louisvi… v FC Cinc… | 0-6 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Mar 07, 2026 | Lexington | 1-2 | Louisville Ci… |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Lexington | 1-2 | Louisville Ci… |
| May 02, 2025 | Louisville Ci… | 2-0 | Lexington |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Louisville Ci… | 3-2 | Lexington |
| Apr 05, 2023 | Louisville Ci… | 1-0 | Lexington |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
90%
Standings
50%
Market
35%
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Louisville City FC in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.