Primera División - Apertura · Mar 31, 2026 14:00
Progreso
PWR 35
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
Progreso
PWR 35
3 - 3
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-1 (26%)0-0 (21%)0-2 (17%)1-1 (8%)0-3 (7%)1-0 (6%)
WRONG 3-3
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.95x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.41x
Over 2.5
21%
Under 2.5
79%
79%
BTTS
No
No 19%
Over 3.5
31%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Progreso
DLWDD
STABLE
Peñarol Montev…
LWDWL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Apertura
Expected Goals (xG)
0.30
Progresovs
1.27
Peñarol Montev…Goal Probability
Progreso
0
74%
1
22%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
Peñarol Mon…
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (11%)0-1 (11%)1-2 (10%)0-2 (10%)1-0 (6%)0-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 24% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#14
Progreso-12
Gap#2
Peñarol Mon…
WR 0% 7 pts
WR 75% 19 pts
Progreso
10.0%
| Mar 26 | Progreso v Racing … | 1-1 |
| Mar 22 | Progreso v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 14 | Progreso v Cerrito | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Progreso v Albion … | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Progreso v Danubio | 2-2 |
| Feb 21 | Progreso v Club Na… | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Progreso v Deporti… | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Progreso v Central… | 0-3 |
| Jan 29 | Progreso v Boston … | 1-2 |
| Jan 22 | Progreso v Club Na… | 1-1 |
Peñarol Montev…
10.0%
| Mar 29 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 1-2 |
| Mar 25 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-2 |
| Mar 24 | Peñarol… v Central… | 3-3 |
| Mar 21 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 3-1 |
| Mar 21 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 1-0 |
| Mar 16 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Peñarol… v Albion … | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Oct 26, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 3-1 | Progreso |
| Aug 01, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Progreso |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Progreso | 0-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 01, 2025 | Progreso | 1-3 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Progreso | 1-5 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Nov 03, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Progreso |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Progreso | 0-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
| May 23, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 3-1 | Progreso |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Progreso | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Nov 25, 2021 | Progreso | 0-0 | Peñarol Monte… |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
36%
Standings
30%
Market
35%
High draw risk (54%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.