Serie A · Apr 02, 2026 22:00
Chapecoense
PWR 35
Atletico-MG
PWR 35
Chapecoense
PWR 35
2-0
predicted
Atletico-MG
PWR 35
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Chapecoense Win
Score
2-0
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (24%)2-0 (17%)0-0 (17%)1-1 (9%)3-0 (8%)2-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.7x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.57x
Over 2.5
27%
Under 2.5
73%
73%
BTTS
No
No 24%
Over 3.5
15%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Chapecoense
LWLDD
STABLE
Atletico-MG
LWLWL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 75% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (27.9%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Chapecoensevs
0.37
Atletico-MGGoal Probability
Chapecoense
0
24%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
4%
Atletico-MG
0
69%
1
26%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-1 (18%)0-0 (13%)1-1 (12%)0-2 (12%)1-0 (9%)1-2 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 87% | 13% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% | - |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#15
Chapecoense-2
Gap#13
Atletico-MG
WR 25% 7 pts
WR 0% 8 pts
Chapecoense
8.0%
| Mar 28 | Chapeco… v Volta R… | 1-0 |
| Mar 26 | Chapeco… v São Ber… | 2-1 |
| Mar 22 | Chapeco… v Interna… | 2-0 |
| Mar 20 | Chapeco… v Corinth… | 0-0 |
| Mar 16 | Chapeco… v Remo | 1-1 |
| Mar 12 | Chapeco… v São Pau… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Chapeco… v Barra | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Chapeco… v Barra | 3-1 |
| Feb 22 | Chapeco… v Brusque | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Chapeco… v Brusque | 1-0 |
Atletico-MG
8.0%
| Mar 21 | Atletic… v Flumine… | 1-0 |
| Mar 18 | Atletic… v São Pau… | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Atletic… v Vitoria | 2-0 |
| Mar 11 | Atletic… v Interna… | 1-0 |
| Mar 08 | Atletic… v Cruzeiro | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Atletic… v América… | 0-0 |
| Feb 26 | Atletic… v Remo | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Atletic… v América… | 1-1 |
| Feb 14 | Atletic… v Itabiri… | 2-7 |
| Feb 11 | Atletic… v Remo | 3-3 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Oct 06, 2021 | Chapecoense | 2-2 | Atletico-MG |
| Jun 21, 2021 | Atletico-MG | 1-1 | Chapecoense |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
81%
Standings
46%
Market
38%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Atletico-MG struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.