Challenge League · Apr 07, 2026 17:00
FC Aarau
PWR 35
Étoile Carouge
PWR 35
FC Aarau
PWR 35
3-1
predicted
Étoile Carouge
PWR 35
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
FC Aarau Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
50%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-2 (8%)1-1 (8%)2-2 (7%)2-1 (7%)1-3 (6%)2-3 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
72%
72%
Under 2.5
28%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 73%
Over 3.5
57%
57%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
FC Aarau
WWDLW
STABLE
Étoile Carouge
WWLWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk22%
Accuracy56%
FORM_MOMENTUMPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Elevated draw risk (21.8%) - consider AHBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got STANDARD/2 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
FC Aarauvs
2.16
Étoile CarougeGoal Probability
FC Aarau
0
18%
1
31%
2
27%
3
15%
4
7%
Étoile Caro…
0
12%
1
25%
2
27%
3
19%
4
11%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)3-1 (7%)1-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)2-0 (6%)3-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% | - |
| 4.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 5.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
FC Aarau+6
Gap#8
Étoile Caro…
WR 77% 59 pts
WR 23% 25 pts
FC Aarau
14.0%
| Mar 21 | FC Aarau v FC Thun | 2-0 |
| Mar 21 | FC Aarau v Neuchât… | 1-0 |
| Mar 18 | FC Aarau v Rappers… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | FC Aarau v Zürich … | 0-2 |
| Mar 13 | FC Aarau v FC Vaduz | 2-0 |
| Mar 06 | FC Aarau v Étoile … | 0-3 |
| Feb 27 | FC Aarau v Rappers… | 5-3 |
| Feb 20 | FC Aarau v Stade N… | 1-1 |
| Feb 20 | FC Aarau v Luzern … | 2-3 |
| Feb 14 | FC Aarau v Servett… | 0-3 |
Étoile Carouge
14.0%
| Mar 22 | Étoile … v FC WIL … | 1-3 |
| Mar 13 | Étoile … v Bellinz… | 0-3 |
| Mar 06 | Étoile … v FC Aarau | 0-3 |
| Feb 28 | Étoile … v Stade L… | 0-1 |
| Feb 20 | Étoile … v Yverdon… | 2-2 |
| Feb 13 | Étoile … v Neuchât… | 1-3 |
| Feb 06 | Étoile … v FC Vaduz | 3-3 |
| Jan 30 | Étoile … v Rappers… | 2-1 |
| Jan 23 | Étoile … v Stade N… | 2-2 |
| Jan 16 | Étoile … v Chênois | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (8)
| Mar 06, 2026 | Étoile Carouge | 0-3 | FC Aarau |
| Dec 12, 2025 | FC Aarau | 2-1 | Étoile Carouge |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Étoile Carouge | 1-3 | FC Aarau |
| May 16, 2025 | Étoile Carouge | 1-3 | FC Aarau |
| Mar 28, 2025 | FC Aarau | 2-2 | Étoile Carouge |
| Dec 05, 2024 | FC Aarau | 0-1 | Étoile Carouge |
| Nov 01, 2024 | Étoile Carouge | 2-1 | FC Aarau |
| Aug 24, 2024 | FC Aarau | 1-0 | Étoile Carouge |
Decision Breakdown
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
45%
Standings
72%
Market
50%
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
FC Aarau in strong form (3W in last 5)
Étoile Carouge in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.