Azerbaijan Premier League · Apr 04, 2026 13:00
Qarabağ FK
PWR 35
Qarabağ FK
PWR 35
3-1
predicted
Karvan
PWR 35
PWR 35
55%
23%
22%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Qarabağ FK Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
63%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (6%)3-0 (6%)2-1 (4%)2-0 (4%)3-2 (3%)2-2 (2%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
62%
62%
Under 2.5
38%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 64%
Over 3.5
55%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Qarabağ FK
LWWWD
STABLE
Karvan
LLDWD
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk23%
Accuracy73%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAPTABLE_EXTREMES
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskElevated draw risk (23.4%) - consider AHElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got GOLD/3 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Qarabağ FKvs
1.05
KarvanGoal Probability
Qarabağ FK
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Karvan
0
35%
1
37%
2
19%
3
7%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (9%)2-0 (9%)3-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)4-0 (7%)4-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% | - |
| 4.5 | 36% | 64% | - |
| 5.5 | 20% | 80% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Qarabağ FK+10
Gap#12
Karvan
WR 62% 52 pts
WR 8% 8 pts
Qarabağ FK
14.0%
| Mar 20 | Qarabağ… v Kəpəz | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Qarabağ… v Zira | 1-3 |
| Mar 08 | Qarabağ… v Araz | 6-0 |
| Mar 04 | Qarabağ… v Şamaxı | 3-1 |
| Mar 01 | Qarabağ… v Sabah FA | 3-3 |
| Feb 24 | Qarabağ… v Newcast… | 3-2 |
| Feb 18 | Qarabağ… v Newcast… | 1-6 |
| Feb 14 | Qarabağ… v Mil-Muğ… | 0-1 |
| Feb 10 | Qarabağ… v Şamaxı | 1-2 |
| Feb 05 | Qarabağ… v Şamaxı | 2-1 |
Karvan
8.0%
| Mar 19 | Karvan v Zira | 0-1 |
| Mar 13 | Karvan v Araz | 2-1 |
| Mar 07 | Karvan v Sumqayıt | 1-1 |
| Mar 05 | Karvan v Plzen | 3-0 |
| Feb 28 | Karvan v Qabala | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Karvan v Araz | 0-2 |
| Feb 14 | Karvan v Zira | 1-0 |
| Feb 09 | Karvan v Turan T… | 1-0 |
| Jan 30 | Karvan v Sumqayıt | 0-2 |
| Jan 25 | Karvan v Sabah FA | 4-1 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Dec 03, 2025 | Qarabağ FK | 3-0 | Karvan |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Qarabağ FK | 2-0 | Karvan |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Karvan | 0-2 | Qarabağ FK |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
85%
Market
50%
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Qarabağ FK in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.