Azerbaijan Premier League · Apr 04, 2026 13:00
Sumqayıt
PWR 35
Neftchi Baku
PWR 35
Sumqayıt
PWR 35
2-2
predicted
Neftchi Baku
PWR 35
27%
29%
44%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Neftchi Baku Win
Score
2-2
Confidence
42%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-1 (18%)0-2 (17%)0-3 (11%)0-0 (9%)1-1 (8%)1-2 (8%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS
No
No 31%
Over 3.5
29%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Sumqayıt
LLDLL
DOWN
Neftchi Baku
WWLDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy56%
AWAY_FORM_MOMENTUMAWAY_FORM_DOMINANT
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 5/10 draws (50%) = VERY HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (32.4%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
0.45
Sumqayıtvs
1.96
Neftchi BakuGoal Probability
Sumqayıt
0
64%
1
29%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
Neftchi Baku
0
14%
1
28%
2
27%
3
18%
4
9%
CORRECT SCORES
0-2 (17%)0-1 (15%)0-3 (13%)1-2 (8%)0-4 (7%)1-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% | - |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
Sumqayıt+1
Gap#7
Neftchi Baku
WR 33% 32 pts
WR 46% 31 pts
Sumqayıt
2.0%
| Mar 19 | Sumqayıt v Sabah FA | 3-1 |
| Mar 13 | Sumqayıt v Şamaxı | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Sumqayıt v Karvan | 1-1 |
| Mar 03 | Sumqayıt v Zira | 2-0 |
| Feb 27 | Sumqayıt v Kəpəz | 3-0 |
| Feb 20 | Sumqayıt v Qabala | 0-0 |
| Feb 15 | Sumqayıt v Araz | 1-0 |
| Feb 08 | Sumqayıt v Zira | 2-3 |
| Feb 04 | Sumqayıt v Zira | 0-0 |
| Jan 30 | Sumqayıt v Karvan | 0-2 |
Neftchi Baku
14.0%
| Mar 20 | Neftchi… v Mil-Muğ… | 6-0 |
| Mar 15 | Neftchi… v Qabala | 1-3 |
| Mar 09 | Neftchi… v Turan T… | 0-1 |
| Feb 28 | Neftchi… v Şamaxı | 2-2 |
| Feb 15 | Neftchi… v Kəpəz | 1-3 |
| Feb 10 | Neftchi… v Qabala | 1-0 |
| Feb 01 | Neftchi… v Araz | 0-4 |
| Jan 23 | Neftchi… v Zira | 0-0 |
| Dec 20 | Neftchi… v Karvan | 1-2 |
| Dec 15 | Neftchi… v Sumqayıt | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Dec 15, 2025 | Neftchi Baku | 2-2 | Sumqayıt |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Sumqayıt | 0-2 | Neftchi Baku |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Sumqayıt | 2-2 | Neftchi Baku |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Neftchi Baku | 1-0 | Sumqayıt |
| Dec 08, 2024 | Sumqayıt | 2-0 | Neftchi Baku |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 | Sumqayıt |
| Apr 07, 2024 | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 | Sumqayıt |
| Feb 09, 2024 | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 | Sumqayıt |
| Feb 04, 2024 | Sumqayıt | 2-1 | Neftchi Baku |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Sumqayıt | 2-3 | Neftchi Baku |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
35%
Standings
48%
Market
50%
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Neftchi Baku in strong form (3W in last 5)
Sumqayıt struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.