Championship · Apr 06, 2026 14:00
Derby
PWR 37
Stoke City
PWR 37
Derby
PWR 37
2-1
predicted
Stoke City
PWR 37
61%
22%
17%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Derby Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (20%)3-0 (18%)1-0 (15%)0-0 (6%)2-1 (4%)3-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS
No
No 18%
Over 3.5
50%
Team Comparison
44Attack34
63Defense72
Goals/G
1.51.1
Conc/G
1.20.9
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Derby
WWLWW
STABLE
Stoke City
LWDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
FORM_DOMINANT
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team draws 30% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 1/3 draws (33%) = HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.63
Derbyvs
0.22
Stoke CityGoal Probability
Derby
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
14%
Stoke City
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)3-0 (8%)3-1 (8%)1-0 (7%)1-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 50% | 51% | - |
| 4.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Derby+7
Gap#15
Stoke City
WR 40% 60 pts
WR 30% 51 pts
Derby
16.0%
| Mar 21 | Derby v Birming… | 1-0 |
| Mar 16 | Derby v Portsmo… | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Derby v Millwall | 1-0 |
| Mar 07 | Derby v Sheffie… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Derby v Blackbu… | 3-1 |
| Feb 24 | Derby v Hull Ci… | 4-2 |
| Feb 21 | Derby v Watford | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Derby v Swansea | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Derby v Ipswich | 1-2 |
| Jan 30 | Derby v Bristol… | 0-5 |
Stoke City
6.0%
| Mar 20 | Stoke C… v Preston | 3-1 |
| Mar 14 | Stoke C… v Watford | 3-1 |
| Mar 10 | Stoke C… v Ipswich | 3-3 |
| Mar 07 | Stoke C… v Swansea | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Stoke C… v Coventry | 2-1 |
| Feb 25 | Stoke C… v Oxford … | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Stoke C… v Leicest… | 2-2 |
| Feb 15 | Stoke C… v Fulham | 1-2 |
| Feb 11 | Stoke C… v Charlton | 1-0 |
| Feb 07 | Stoke C… v West Br… | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Aug 09, 2025 | Stoke City | 3-1 | Derby |
| May 03, 2025 | Derby | 0-0 | Stoke City |
| Nov 02, 2024 | Stoke City | 2-1 | Derby |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
64%
Market
50%
Key Factors
Derby in strong form (4W in last 5)
Stoke City struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.