Primera DivisiĂłn · Apr 04, 2026 20:00
Estudiantes de Merida FC
PWR 35
Portuguesa FC
PWR 35
Estudiantes de Merida FC
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Portuguesa FC
PWR 35
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-1 (10%)1-2 (9%)2-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)0-1 (6%)0-2 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
64%
64%
Under 2.5
36%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 66%
Over 3.5
30%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Estudiantes de…
LWDLW
STABLE
Portuguesa FC
DWDLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk34%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskAway draws 50% away = VERY HIGHCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rate
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Estudiantes de…vs
1.88
Portuguesa FCGoal Probability
Estudiantes…
0
22%
1
33%
2
25%
3
13%
4
5%
Portuguesa …
0
15%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (8%)1-2 (8%)2-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 24% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Estudiantes…-2
Gap#6
Portuguesa …
WR 25% 11 pts
WR 25% 13 pts
Estudiantes de…
10.0%
| Mar 22 | Estudia… v Deporti… | 1-0 |
| Mar 18 | Estudia… v Carabob… | 3-2 |
| Mar 14 | Estudia… v UCV | 1-1 |
| Mar 06 | Estudia… v Real Es… | 0-1 |
| Feb 27 | Estudia… v Puerto … | 1-2 |
| Feb 23 | Estudia… v Academi… | 0-3 |
| Feb 13 | Estudia… v Rayo Zu… | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Estudia… v Zamora | 3-2 |
| Feb 01 | Estudia… v Caracas… | 2-2 |
| Oct 05 | Estudia… v Yaracuy… | 0-2 |
Portuguesa FC
12.0%
| Mar 22 | Portugu… v Rayo Zu… | 1-1 |
| Mar 18 | Portugu… v Zamora | 0-2 |
| Mar 14 | Portugu… v Caracas… | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Portugu… v Metropo… | 3-2 |
| Feb 27 | Portugu… v Monagas… | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | Portugu… v Trujill… | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Portugu… v Academi… | 0-3 |
| Feb 06 | Portugu… v Deporti… | 1-0 |
| Jan 31 | Portugu… v Carabob… | 0-0 |
| Oct 05 | Portugu… v Puerto … | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Sep 20, 2025 | Estudiantes d… | 2-0 | Portuguesa FC |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Portuguesa FC | 4-2 | Estudiantes d… |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
47%
Standings
46%
Market
50%
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.