La Liga · Apr 03, 2026 19:00
Rayo Vallecano
PWR 49
Elche
PWR 34
Rayo Vallecano
PWR 49
2-1
predicted
Elche
PWR 34
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Rayo Vallecano Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (12%)2-0 (8%)3-1 (4%)1-0 (4%)2-1 (3%)1-1 (1%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
BTTS
No
No 31%
Over 3.5
44%
Team Comparison
68Attack41
74Defense56
Goals/G
2.31.4
Conc/G
0.91.5
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Rayo Vallecano
LLDWD
DOWN
Elche
DLLDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 57% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesCombined DR 86% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (31.4%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.48
Rayo Vallecanovs
0.37
ElcheGoal Probability
Rayo Vallec…
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Elche
0
69%
1
26%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (12%)3-0 (11%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)3-1 (8%)4-0 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% | - |
| 4.5 | 25% | 75% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
League Position
#14
Rayo Vallec…+3
Gap#17
Elche
WR 29% 32 pts
WR 0% 29 pts
Rayo Vallecano
8.0%
| Mar 22 | Rayo Va… v FC Barc… | 1-0 |
| Mar 19 | Rayo Va… v Samsuns… | 0-1 |
| Mar 16 | Rayo Va… v Levante | 1-1 |
| Mar 12 | Rayo Va… v Samsuns… | 1-3 |
| Mar 08 | Rayo Va… v Sevilla | 1-1 |
| Mar 04 | Rayo Va… v Oviedo | 3-0 |
| Feb 28 | Rayo Va… v Athleti… | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Rayo Va… v Real Be… | 1-1 |
| Feb 15 | Rayo Va… v Atlétic… | 3-0 |
| Feb 01 | Rayo Va… v Real Ma… | 2-1 |
Elche
4.0%
| Mar 21 | Elche v Mallorca | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Elche v Real Ma… | 4-1 |
| Mar 08 | Elche v Villarr… | 2-1 |
| Mar 01 | Elche v Espanyol | 2-2 |
| Feb 20 | Elche v Athleti… | 2-1 |
| Feb 13 | Elche v Osasuna | 0-0 |
| Feb 07 | Elche v Real So… | 3-1 |
| Jan 31 | Elche v FC Barc… | 1-3 |
| Jan 23 | Elche v Levante | 3-2 |
| Jan 19 | Elche v Sevilla | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Dec 21, 2025 | Elche | 4-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Elche | 4-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| Oct 03, 2022 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-1 | Elche |
| Feb 18, 2022 | Elche | 2-1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-1 | Elche |
| Jan 16, 2021 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-0 | Elche |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
63%
Market
50%
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Elche struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.