Eredivisie · Apr 04, 2026 16:45
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
Fortuna Sittard
PWR 35
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
4-1
predicted
Fortuna Sittard
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
AZ Alkmaar Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (10%)2-0 (6%)3-1 (5%)2-1 (4%)1-0 (3%)1-1 (2%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
BTTS
No 42%
Over 3.5
68%
68%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
AZ Alkmaar
LWLWL
STABLE
Fortuna Sittard
LWLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team draws 38% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (24.0%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
AZ Alkmaarvs
0.55
Fortuna SittardGoal Probability
AZ Alkmaar
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Fortuna Sit…
0
58%
1
32%
2
9%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-1 (8%)2-1 (7%)4-1 (6%)3-0 (6%)2-0 (5%)3-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 6% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 49% | 51% | - |
| 5.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 19% | 82% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
AZ Alkmaar+5
Gap#11
Fortuna Sit…
WR 46% 42 pts
WR 29% 35 pts
AZ Alkmaar
8.0%
| Mar 22 | AZ Alkm… v Groning… | 3-0 |
| Mar 15 | AZ Alkm… v Heracles | 4-0 |
| Mar 07 | AZ Alkm… v PSV Ein… | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | AZ Alkm… v Telstar | 2-1 |
| Mar 01 | AZ Alkm… v Utrecht | 2-0 |
| Feb 26 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | AZ Alkm… v Sparta … | 3-1 |
| Feb 19 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | AZ Alkm… v Ajax | 1-1 |
Fortuna Sittard
12.0%
| Mar 21 | Fortuna… v FC Twen… | 1-2 |
| Mar 14 | Fortuna… v FC Vole… | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Fortuna… v Telstar | 1-4 |
| Feb 28 | Fortuna… v NEC Nij… | 2-3 |
| Feb 20 | Fortuna… v Excelsi… | 2-1 |
| Feb 14 | Fortuna… v Ajax | 4-1 |
| Feb 07 | Fortuna… v Sparta … | 2-2 |
| Feb 01 | Fortuna… v Heracles | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Fortuna… v Groning… | 1-2 |
| Jan 17 | Fortuna… v PSV Ein… | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Dec 21, 2025 | Fortuna Sitta… | 4-3 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Feb 23, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-0 | Fortuna Sitta… |
| Oct 06, 2024 | Fortuna Sitta… | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Oct 06, 2024 | Fortuna Sitta… | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Fortuna Sitta… | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Fortuna Sitta… | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Oct 01, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | 4-0 | Fortuna Sitta… |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Fortuna Sitta… | 0-3 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Jan 22, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | 3-1 | Fortuna Sitta… |
| Jan 16, 2022 | Fortuna Sitta… | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
63%
Market
50%
Key Factors
Fortuna Sittard in strong form (3W in last 5)
AZ Alkmaar struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.