Serie A · Apr 04, 2026 13:00
Lecce
PWR 27
Atalanta
PWR 40
Lecce
PWR 27
1-1
predicted
Atalanta
PWR 40
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (42% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (16%)1-0 (14%)3-0 (12%)2-1 (8%)1-1 (7%)3-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
BTTS
No 36%
Over 3.5
31%
Team Comparison
17Attack39
61Defense74
Goals/G
0.61.3
Conc/G
1.30.9
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Lecce
LLWLL
DOWN
Atalanta
WLDLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityWR diff only 2% = 35.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskAway draws 43% away = VERY HIGHCombined DR 70% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.33
Leccevs
0.50
AtalantaGoal Probability
Lecce
0
10%
1
23%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Atalanta
0
61%
1
30%
2
8%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (8%)1-2 (7%)2-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 7% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#16
Lecce-9
Gap#7
Atalanta
WR 27% 27 pts
WR 29% 47 pts
Lecce
4.0%
| Mar 22 | Lecce v Roma | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Lecce v Napoli | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Lecce v Cremone… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Lecce v Como | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Lecce v Inter M… | 0-2 |
| Feb 16 | Lecce v Cagliari | 0-2 |
| Feb 08 | Lecce v Udinese | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Lecce v Torino | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Lecce v Lazio | 0-0 |
| Jan 18 | Lecce v AC Milan | 1-0 |
Atalanta
8.0%
| Mar 22 | Atalanta v Verona | 1-0 |
| Mar 18 | Atalanta v FC Baye… | 4-1 |
| Mar 14 | Atalanta v Inter M… | 1-1 |
| Mar 10 | Atalanta v FC Baye… | 1-6 |
| Mar 07 | Atalanta v Udinese | 2-2 |
| Mar 04 | Atalanta v Lazio | 2-2 |
| Mar 01 | Atalanta v Sassuolo | 2-1 |
| Feb 25 | Atalanta v Borussi… | 4-1 |
| Feb 22 | Atalanta v Napoli | 2-1 |
| Feb 17 | Atalanta v Borussi… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Sep 14, 2025 | Atalanta | 4-1 | Lecce |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Atalanta | 1-1 | Lecce |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Lecce | 0-4 | Atalanta |
| May 18, 2024 | Lecce | 0-2 | Atalanta |
| May 18, 2024 | Lecce | 0-2 | Atalanta |
| Dec 30, 2023 | Atalanta | 1-0 | Lecce |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
32%
Market
50%
High draw risk (29%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Lecce struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.