Primeira Liga · Apr 04, 2026 16:00
Nacional
PWR 35
Estrela da Amadora
PWR 35
Nacional
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Estrela da Amadora
PWR 35
37%
27%
36%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Nacional Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (21%)2-0 (20%)3-0 (13%)0-0 (11%)1-1 (6%)2-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
64%
BTTS
No
No 21%
Over 3.5
19%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Nacional
LLDLL
DOWN
Estrela da Ama…
WLDDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (32.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.90
Nacionalvs
0.28
Estrela da Ama…Goal Probability
Nacional
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Estrela da …
0
76%
1
21%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (14%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (11%)0-1 (10%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 3.5 | 19% | 82% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 8% | 93% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#16
Nacional-3
Gap#13
Estrela da …
WR 23% 22 pts
WR 15% 25 pts
Nacional
2.0%
| Mar 21 | Nacional v Famalic… | 1-0 |
| Mar 15 | Nacional v Estoril | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Nacional v Moreire… | 1-1 |
| Feb 28 | Nacional v SC Braga | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Nacional v Arouca | 3-0 |
| Feb 15 | Nacional v FC Porto | 0-1 |
| Feb 08 | Nacional v Casa Pi… | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Nacional v Sportin… | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Nacional v Rio Ave… | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Nacional v GIL Vic… | 2-1 |
Estrela da Ama…
8.0%
| Mar 20 | Estrela… v Casa Pi… | 4-0 |
| Mar 15 | Estrela… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Estrela… v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Estrela… v AVS | 0-0 |
| Feb 20 | Estrela… v Tondela | 0-2 |
| Feb 14 | Estrela… v Guimara… | 2-1 |
| Feb 07 | Estrela… v Santa C… | 1-0 |
| Jan 31 | Estrela… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Jan 25 | Estrela… v Benfica | 4-0 |
| Jan 19 | Estrela… v Estoril | 0-5 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Nov 09, 2025 | Estrela da Am… | 1-1 | Nacional |
| Apr 06, 2025 | Nacional | 0-1 | Estrela da Am… |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Estrela da Am… | 2-0 | Nacional |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Estrela da Am… | 2-0 | Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
88%
Standings
44%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Nacional struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.