Primeira Liga · Apr 04, 2026 16:00
Arouca
PWR 35
Estoril
PWR 35
Arouca
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Estoril
PWR 35
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (7%)2-1 (6%)3-2 (6%)2-2 (5%)3-0 (4%)1-1 (3%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
75%
75%
Under 2.5
25%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 80%
Over 3.5
57%
57%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Arouca
WLLLW
STABLE
Estoril
LWDLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk22%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.38
Aroucavs
1.76
EstorilGoal Probability
Arouca
0
3%
1
12%
2
19%
3
22%
4
19%
Estoril
0
17%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4
7%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (8%)1-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)1-2 (7%)3-1 (6%)3-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 77% | 24% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% | - |
| 4.5 | 38% | 63% | - |
| 5.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
League Position
#12
Arouca-5
Gap#7
Estoril
WR 31% 26 pts
WR 31% 37 pts
Arouca
8.0%
| Mar 21 | Arouca v Moreireā¦ | 0-1 |
| Mar 14 | Arouca v Benfica | 1-2 |
| Mar 06 | Arouca v Famalicā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Arouca v FC Porto | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Arouca v Nacional | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Arouca v Casa Piā¦ | 3-2 |
| Feb 07 | Arouca v Guimaraā¦ | 3-2 |
| Jan 31 | Arouca v Rio Aveā¦ | 0-3 |
| Jan 24 | Arouca v Sportinā¦ | 1-2 |
| Jan 17 | Arouca v AVS | 0-1 |
Estoril
10.0%
| Mar 22 | Estoril v Rio Aveā¦ | 1-2 |
| Mar 15 | Estoril v Nacional | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Estoril v Casa Piā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 27 | Estoril v Sportinā¦ | 3-0 |
| Feb 22 | Estoril v GIL Vicā¦ | 3-1 |
| Feb 15 | Estoril v AVS | 3-0 |
| Feb 07 | Estoril v Tondela | 2-2 |
| Jan 31 | Estoril v Santa Cā¦ | 2-4 |
| Jan 24 | Estoril v Guimaraā¦ | 4-2 |
| Jan 19 | Estoril v Estrelaā¦ | 0-5 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Nov 07, 2025 | Estoril | 4-3 | Arouca |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Arouca | 1-1 | Estoril |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Estoril | 4-1 | Arouca |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Estoril | 4-1 | Arouca |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Estoril | 1-2 | Arouca |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Estoril | 1-2 | Arouca |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
88%
Standings
40%
Market
50%
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Arouca struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.