Primeira Liga · Apr 04, 2026 16:00
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Alverca
PWR 35
PWR 35
57%
23%
20%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Rio Ave FC Win
Score
1-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (14%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (10%)2-0 (9%)0-1 (9%)2-1 (9%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS
No 46%
Over 3.5
14%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Rio Ave FC
WWWDL
UP
Alverca
LDDDD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk35%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 31% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateAway team drew 4/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskCombined DR 62% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (34.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Rio Ave FCvs
0.94
AlvercaGoal Probability
Rio Ave FC
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Alverca
0
39%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
0-1 (15%)0-0 (14%)1-1 (14%)1-0 (13%)0-2 (8%)1-2 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#11
Rio Ave FC-1
Gap#10
Alverca
WR 23% 27 pts
WR 15% 29 pts
Rio Ave FC
14.0%
| Mar 22 | Rio Aveā¦ v Estoril | 1-2 |
| Mar 15 | Rio Aveā¦ v Estrelaā¦ | 2-1 |
| Mar 09 | Rio Aveā¦ v Tondela | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Rio Aveā¦ v Famalicā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Rio Aveā¦ v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Feb 16 | Rio Aveā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Rio Aveā¦ v SC Braga | 3-0 |
| Jan 31 | Rio Aveā¦ v Arouca | 0-3 |
| Jan 25 | Rio Aveā¦ v Nacional | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Rio Aveā¦ v Benfica | 0-2 |
Alverca
8.0%
| Mar 22 | Alverca v Sportinā¦ | 0-2 |
| Mar 14 | Alverca v GIL Vicā¦ | 2-2 |
| Mar 07 | Alverca v AVS | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Alverca v Guimaraā¦ | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Alverca v Santa Cā¦ | 1-1 |
| Feb 13 | Alverca v Tondela | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Alverca v Benfica | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Alverca v Estrelaā¦ | 1-1 |
| Jan 25 | Alverca v SC Braga | 5-0 |
| Jan 17 | Alverca v Moreireā¦ | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Nov 08, 2025 | Alverca | 1-1 | Rio Ave FC |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Alverca | 2-2 | Rio Ave FC |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
66%
Standings
48%
Market
50%
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Rio Ave FC in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.