Primeira Liga · Apr 04, 2026 16:00
Guimaraes
PWR 35
Tondela
PWR 35
Guimaraes
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Tondela
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Guimaraes Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
37%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (13%)1-0 (11%)3-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
BTTS
No 47%
Over 3.5
14%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Guimaraes
LLLLW
DOWN
Tondela
DLDWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy38%
POSITION_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskElevated draw risk (23.7%) - consider AHElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got SKIP/1 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.37
Guimaraesvs
0.73
TondelaGoal Probability
Guimaraes
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Tondela
0
48%
1
35%
2
13%
3
3%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (17%)0-0 (14%)1-1 (13%)0-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#9
Guimaraes+8
Gap#17
Tondela
WR 43% 32 pts
WR 25% 19 pts
Guimaraes
4.0%
| Mar 22 | Guimara… v Amarante | 2-1 |
| Mar 21 | Guimara… v Benfica | 3-0 |
| Mar 15 | Guimara… v Trofense | 1-2 |
| Mar 14 | Guimara… v Famalic… | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Mafra | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Santa C… | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Varzim | 3-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v União S… | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 3-2 |
Tondela
10.0%
| Mar 21 | Tondela v AVS | 0-0 |
| Mar 09 | Tondela v Rio Ave… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Tondela v Santa C… | 2-2 |
| Feb 20 | Tondela v Estrela… | 0-2 |
| Feb 13 | Tondela v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Tondela v Estoril | 2-2 |
| Feb 01 | Tondela v Benfica | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Tondela v Famalic… | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Tondela v SC Braga | 0-1 |
| Jan 11 | Tondela v Moreire… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Nov 08, 2025 | Tondela | 0-1 | Guimaraes |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
89%
Standings
67%
Market
50%
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Guimaraes struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.