Liga de Expansión MX · Apr 04, 2026 02:00
Tepatitlán
PWR 35
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
PWR 35
Tepatitlán
PWR 35
1-0
predicted
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
PWR 35
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Tepatitlán to win (63% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
63%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (14%)2-0 (9%)1-0 (4%)3-1 (3%)2-1 (2%)0-0 (1%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
BTTS
No
No 19%
Over 3.5
60%
60%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Tepatitlán
DWLWL
STABLE
Alebrijes de O…
DLDLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Liga de Expansión MX
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Tepatitlánvs
0.21
Alebrijes de O…Goal Probability
Tepatitlán
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Alebrijes d…
0
81%
1
17%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)3-0 (8%)2-0 (8%)4-1 (6%)4-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 60% | 41% | - |
| 4.5 | 40% | 60% | - |
| 5.5 | 24% | 76% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Tepatitlán+5
Gap#13
Alebrijes d…
WR 53% 18 pts
WR 25% 13 pts
Tepatitlán
10.0%
| Mar 29 | Tepatit… v Cancún | 2-2 |
| Mar 21 | Tepatit… v Venados… | 2-0 |
| Mar 15 | Tepatit… v Monarcas | 3-2 |
| Mar 08 | Tepatit… v Mineros… | 4-0 |
| Mar 01 | Tepatit… v Tlaxcala | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Tepatit… v Irapuato | 2-1 |
| Feb 15 | Tepatit… v Leones … | 0-0 |
| Feb 07 | Tepatit… v Correca… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Tepatit… v Dorados | 0-0 |
| Jan 24 | Tepatit… v Tapatío | 2-0 |
Alebrijes de O…
6.0%
| Mar 28 | Alebrij… v Leones … | 1-1 |
| Mar 28 | Alebrij… v Poza Ri… | 2-1 |
| Mar 26 | Alebrij… v Poza Ri… | 1-1 |
| Mar 21 | Alebrij… v CA La P… | 4-0 |
| Mar 14 | Alebrij… v Aguacat… | 0-0 |
| Mar 13 | Alebrij… v Tapatío | 4-3 |
| Mar 08 | Alebrij… v Irapuato | 6-2 |
| Mar 07 | Alebrij… v Poza Ri… | 5-1 |
| Feb 27 | Alebrij… v Dorados | 3-2 |
| Feb 22 | Alebrij… v CDM | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Oct 25, 2025 | Alebrijes de … | 1-1 | Tepatitlán |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Tepatitlán | 4-0 | Alebrijes de … |
| Mar 27, 2024 | Alebrijes de … | 1-0 | Tepatitlán |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
70%
Market
50%
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.