FAW Championship · Apr 04, 2026 13:00
Caerau (Ely)
PWR 53
PWR 53
2-1
predicted
Ynyshir Albions
PWR 33
PWR 33
55%
23%
22%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 1.9/g, Away concedes 1.9/g, expected 3.2 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
ELITE: Caerau (Ely) to win (95% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
95%
TierELITE
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (12%)3-0 (12%)1-0 (8%)2-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)1-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
62%
62%
Under 2.5
38%
BTTS
No 46%
Over 3.5
71%
71%
Team Comparison
66Attack40
48Defense33
Goals/G
1.91.2
Conc/G
1.51.9
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Caerau (Ely)
WDWWW
STABLE
Ynyshir Albions
DLDWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): FAW Championship
Expected Goals (xG)
2.89
Caerau (Ely)vs
0.66
Ynyshir AlbionsGoal Probability
Caerau (Ely)
0
6%
1
16%
2
23%
3
22%
4
16%
Ynyshir Alb…
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
3%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-1 (8%)4-1 (7%)3-0 (7%)2-1 (6%)4-0 (6%)2-0 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 71% | 29% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 5.5 | 36% | 64% | - |
| 6.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
League Position
#14
Caerau (Ely)+16
Gap#30
Ynyshir Alb…
WR 44% 90 pts
WR 25% 38 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 59 | 26 | 12 | 21 | 112 | 88 | 90 |
| Ynyshir Albio… | 40 | 10 | 8 | 22 | 46 | 77 | 38 |
Caerau (Ely)
18.0%
| Mar 28 | Caerau … v Llantwi… | 1-4 |
| Mar 21 | Caerau … v Cwmbran… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Caerau … v Baglan … | 0-5 |
| Mar 10 | Caerau … v Treowen… | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Caerau … v Afan Li… | 4-1 |
| Mar 01 | Caerau … v Aberyst… | 0-4 |
| Feb 21 | Caerau … v Caernar… | 3-4 |
| Feb 13 | Caerau … v Cambria… | 3-0 |
| Feb 07 | Caerau … v Ammanfo… | 3-1 |
| Jan 31 | Caerau … v Bangor … | 2-1 |
Ynyshir Albions
12.0%
| Mar 28 | Ynyshir… v Trethom… | 2-2 |
| Mar 24 | Ynyshir… v Cardiff… | 4-1 |
| Mar 21 | Ynyshir… v Caernar… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Ynyshir… v Newport… | 4-0 |
| Mar 06 | Ynyshir… v Cwmbran… | 1-3 |
| Feb 28 | Ynyshir… v Treowen… | 1-1 |
| Feb 24 | Ynyshir… v Llantwi… | 2-3 |
| Feb 20 | Ynyshir… v Trefelin | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Ynyshir… v Pontypr… | 1-3 |
| Jan 24 | Ynyshir… v Baglan … | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Jul 26, 2025 | Ynyshir Albio… | 1-4 | Caerau (Ely) |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Caerau (Ely) in strong form (4W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.