FAW Championship · Apr 04, 2026 13:30
Caernarfon Town
PWR 56
Pontypridd Town
PWR 51
Caernarfon Town
PWR 56
2-1
predicted
Pontypridd Town
PWR 51
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 1.8/g, Away concedes 1.6/g, expected 3.3 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
MASTER: Caernarfon Town to win (80% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
80%
TierMASTER
LIKELY SCORES
1-2 (8%)1-3 (7%)2-2 (6%)1-1 (6%)2-3 (6%)0-2 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
74%
74%
Under 2.5
26%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 74%
Over 3.5
88%
88%
Team Comparison
65Attack66
56Defense43
Goals/G
1.81.9
Conc/G
1.31.6
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Caernarfon Town
WLLDW
STABLE
Pontypridd Town
LLWDL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): FAW Championship
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Caernarfon Townvs
2.63
Pontypridd TownGoal Probability
Caernarfon …
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4
5%
Pontypridd …
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
14%
CORRECT SCORES
3-2 (5%)4-2 (5%)3-1 (4%)4-1 (4%)3-3 (4%)4-3 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 100% | 0% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 88% | 12% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 76% | 24% | OVER |
| 5.5 | 61% | 39% | - |
| 6.5 | 45% | 55% | - |
League Position
#5
Caernarfon …+8
Gap#13
Pontypridd …
WR 45% 146 pts
WR 44% 95 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon To… | 86 | 39 | 29 | 18 | 159 | 109 | 146 |
| Pontypridd To… | 63 | 28 | 11 | 24 | 118 | 102 | 95 |
Caernarfon Town
10.0%
| Mar 28 | Caernar… v Baglan … | 0-7 |
| Mar 27 | Caernar… v The New… | 0-4 |
| Mar 21 | Caernar… v Bala To… | 2-1 |
| Mar 21 | Caernar… v Ynyshir… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Caernar… v Cardiff… | 2-3 |
| Mar 13 | Caernar… v GAP Con… | 2-4 |
| Mar 08 | Caernar… v Rhyl | 0-0 |
| Mar 06 | Caernar… v Trethom… | 4-5 |
| Mar 01 | Caernar… v Newport… | 4-4 |
| Feb 27 | Caernar… v Colwyn … | 3-0 |
Pontypridd Town
6.0%
| Mar 27 | Pontypr… v Trefelin | 1-3 |
| Mar 20 | Pontypr… v Trethom… | 4-2 |
| Mar 17 | Pontypr… v Cwmbran… | 2-5 |
| Mar 14 | Pontypr… v Treowen… | 2-2 |
| Mar 06 | Pontypr… v Llantwi… | 0-4 |
| Feb 21 | Pontypr… v Baglan … | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Pontypr… v Ynyshir… | 1-3 |
| Jan 30 | Pontypr… v Afan Li… | 2-0 |
| Jan 09 | Pontypr… v Ammanfo… | 0-3 |
| Jan 01 | Pontypr… v Cambria… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Sep 05, 2025 | Pontypridd To… | 3-1 | Caernarfon To… |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Pontypridd To… | 1-1 | Caernarfon To… |
Decision Breakdown
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
35%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Pontypridd Town struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.