Premier League · Apr 03, 2026 14:00
Ilbirs
PWR 35
Alay
PWR 35
Ilbirs
PWR 35
1-0
predicted
Alay
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
MASTER: Ilbirs to win (81% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
81%
TierMASTER
LIKELY SCORES
1-1 (13%)1-0 (12%)0-1 (11%)0-0 (10%)2-1 (8%)1-2 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
61%
BTTS
No 46%
Over 3.5
26%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Ilbirs
WWLDD
STABLE
Alay
DDWWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk34%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 50% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 3/10 draws (30%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Ilbirsvs
1.09
AlayGoal Probability
Ilbirs
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
Alay
0
34%
1
37%
2
20%
3
7%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)0-1 (11%)1-2 (9%)0-2 (9%)1-0 (8%)0-0 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 8% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% | - |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Ilbirs+5
Gap#8
Alay
WR 50% 7 pts
WR 50% 5 pts
Ilbirs
12.0%
| Mar 18 | Ilbirs v Kara-Ba… | 0-2 |
| Mar 13 | Ilbirs v Neftchi | 2-1 |
| Mar 06 | Ilbirs v Toktogul | 3-2 |
| Mar 01 | Ilbirs v Alay | 1-1 |
| Nov 08 | Ilbirs v Abdish-… | 2-2 |
| Nov 03 | Ilbirs v Asiagoal | 1-0 |
| Oct 24 | Ilbirs v Kara-Ba… | 1-1 |
| Oct 18 | Ilbirs v Bishkek… | 0-1 |
| Oct 12 | Ilbirs v Talant | 1-0 |
| Oct 05 | Ilbirs v Ozgon | 1-3 |
Alay
16.0%
| Mar 15 | Alay v Ozgon | 2-2 |
| Mar 13 | Alay v Kara-Ba… | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Alay v Neftchi | 0-2 |
| Mar 07 | Alay v OshMU A… | 3-0 |
| Mar 03 | Alay v Talant | 2-1 |
| Mar 01 | Alay v Ilbirs | 1-1 |
| Nov 09 | Alay v Neftchi | 4-0 |
| Nov 08 | Alay v Muras U… | 1-0 |
| Nov 05 | Alay v OshMU A… | 2-2 |
| Nov 04 | Alay v Neftchi | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Mar 01, 2026 | Ilbirs | 1-1 | Alay |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Alay | 1-1 | Ilbirs |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Ilbirs | 1-4 | Alay |
| Jul 02, 2025 | Ilbirs | 2-1 | Alay |
| May 01, 2025 | Alay | 1-0 | Ilbirs |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Alay | 1-0 | Ilbirs |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Alay | 3-1 | Ilbirs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Ilbirs | 0-2 | Alay |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Alay | 1-3 | Ilbirs |
| Jun 03, 2023 | Ilbirs | 1-1 | Alay |
Decision Breakdown
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
70%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Alay in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.