Premier League · Apr 03, 2026 13:30
Colwyn Bay
PWR 35
Caernarfon Town
PWR 35
Colwyn Bay
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Caernarfon Town
PWR 35
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-3 (5%)3-2 (5%)2-3 (4%)2-2 (4%)3-1 (3%)1-3 (2%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.66x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.68x
Over 2.5
74%
74%
Under 2.5
26%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 93%
Over 3.5
68%
68%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Colwyn Bay
DWWLW
STABLE
Caernarfon Town
WLLDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 36% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateCombined DR 73% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.1
Expected Goals (xG)
3.43
Colwyn Bayvs
3.21
Caernarfon TownGoal Probability
Colwyn Bay
0
3%
1
11%
2
19%
3
22%
4
19%
Caernarfon …
0
4%
1
13%
2
21%
3
22%
4
18%
CORRECT SCORES
2-2 (7%)1-2 (6%)2-1 (6%)2-3 (6%)1-1 (5%)1-3 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 49% | 51% | - |
| 5.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
Colwyn Bay-2
Gap#4
Caernarfon …
WR 36% 30 pts
WR 46% 34 pts
Colwyn Bay
14.0%
| Mar 28 | Colwyn … v Penybont | 0-0 |
| Mar 20 | Colwyn … v The New… | 0-2 |
| Mar 14 | Colwyn … v Bala To… | 3-1 |
| Feb 27 | Colwyn … v Caernar… | 3-0 |
| Feb 21 | Colwyn … v Penybont | 3-1 |
| Feb 13 | Colwyn … v The New… | 0-2 |
| Feb 07 | Colwyn … v Bala To… | 0-1 |
| Jan 31 | Colwyn … v Caernar… | 4-1 |
| Jan 24 | Colwyn … v GAP Con… | 2-2 |
| Jan 13 | Colwyn … v The New… | 1-0 |
Caernarfon Town
10.0%
| Mar 28 | Caernar… v Baglan … | 0-7 |
| Mar 27 | Caernar… v The New… | 0-4 |
| Mar 21 | Caernar… v Bala To… | 2-1 |
| Mar 21 | Caernar… v Ynyshir… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Caernar… v Cardiff… | 2-3 |
| Mar 13 | Caernar… v GAP Con… | 2-4 |
| Mar 08 | Caernar… v Rhyl | 0-0 |
| Mar 06 | Caernar… v Trethom… | 4-5 |
| Mar 01 | Caernar… v Newport… | 4-4 |
| Feb 27 | Caernar… v Colwyn … | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (8)
| Feb 27, 2026 | Caernarfon To… | 3-0 | Colwyn Bay |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Caernarfon To… | 4-1 | Colwyn Bay |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 1-2 | Colwyn Bay |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 1-3 | Colwyn Bay |
| Oct 04, 2025 | Colwyn Bay | 1-0 | Caernarfon To… |
| Aug 01, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 3-0 | Colwyn Bay |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Caernarfon To… | 2-1 | Colwyn Bay |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Colwyn Bay | 0-4 | Caernarfon To… |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
46%
Market
43%
High draw risk (53%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Colwyn Bay in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.