Primera C · Apr 05, 2026 18:30
Mercedes
PWR 41
Estrella Del Sur
PWR 51
PWR 51
1-0
predicted
Mercedes
PWR 41
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Estrella Del Sur to win (60% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
60%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (15%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (11%)2-0 (10%)0-1 (9%)2-1 (9%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
61%
BTTS
No 43%
Over 3.5
13%
Team Comparison
41Attack30
68Defense61
Goals/G
1.20.9
Conc/G
0.91.1
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Estrella Del S…
WWDLW
STABLE
Mercedes
LDLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rate
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Estrella Del S…vs
0.87
MercedesGoal Probability
Estrella De…
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Mercedes
0
42%
1
36%
2
16%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (16%)0-0 (15%)1-1 (13%)0-1 (12%)2-0 (9%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 15% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 58% | 43% | - |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#17
Estrella De…+1
Gap#18
Mercedes
WR 42% 54 pts
WR 30% 53 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrella Del … | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 39 | 30 | 54 |
| Mercedes | 47 | 14 | 11 | 22 | 40 | 52 | 53 |
Estrella Del S…
14.0%
| Mar 28 | Estrell… v Deporti… | 1-3 |
| Mar 22 | Estrell… v Lujan | 0-1 |
| Mar 14 | Estrell… v Puerto … | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Estrell… v Leandro… | 3-2 |
| Feb 22 | Estrell… v Defenso… | 2-0 |
| Oct 05 | Estrell… v Deporti… | 1-1 |
| Sep 30 | Estrell… v Deporti… | 1-0 |
| Sep 15 | Estrell… v Deporti… | 1-1 |
| Sep 07 | Estrell… v General… | 3-2 |
| Sep 02 | Estrell… v Deporti… | 1-2 |
Mercedes
10.0%
| Mar 28 | Mercedes v Berazat… | 0-2 |
| Mar 21 | Mercedes v El Porv… | 1-1 |
| Mar 14 | Mercedes v Victori… | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Mercedes v Centro … | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Mercedes v JJ Urqu… | 0-2 |
| Nov 22 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Nov 14 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Oct 19 | Mercedes v Atlétic… | 1-1 |
| Oct 13 | Mercedes v Atlétic… | 1-2 |
| Oct 03 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 2-0 |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
67%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Estrella Del Sur in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.